If you follow me on Twitter, you may have noticed a pronounced editorial shift in the content I share: it's all Warren, all the time. As we head into the first primary contest, I thought I'd explain why.
I could write about how Warren is this century's FDR, possessing elite leadership and communications skills and a holistic and comprehensive grasp of policy. Or I could talk about how her campaign is grounded in authenticity, integrity, and compassion. I could talk about how her plans combine both progressive policy and political savvy, a vision for the future and a path to realizing it.
But … well, as it happens, most of you already agree with the premise that Warren is a great candidate. You just think it’s a risk to nominate her. And that’s a mistake.
Warren is the most popular candidate in the race. In the most recent Monmouth University poll (rated A+ by FiveThirtyEight), Warren's net favorability amongst Democrats was +61, ahead of Biden (+56) and Sanders (+53). According The Economist's polling aggregate, Warren is the second choice for both Biden and Sanders, significant in race where, per the most recent Marist College poll (A+ rated), three-quarters of voters have yet to settle on a candidate.
Warren's policies also enjoy broad support. A recent Date For Progress study found that a Democrat running on Medicare For All “fared between 4 and 10 points better than a Democrat running on improving the ACA.” And that isn't accounting for the fact that Warren's version of Medicare For All is funded without a middle class tax hike. And, according to a recent Fox News poll (A- rated), 68% of voters—both Democrats and Republicans—support a wealth tax.
So why is a popular candidate, running on popular policies, behind Biden and Sanders and the polls? I'm going to take a wild guess here that it’s because she's a woman. The disappointment of 2016 casts an ominous shadow over 2020. Voters want a sure thing and the lesson they're taking from 2016 is that a white man is a safer bet than a woman. That the stakes are too high to take chances.
But 2020 is nothing like 2016.
First, experts predict turnout not seen since 1900. This is in stark contrast to 2016, when turnout was down from the previous three presidential elections. These additional voters will represent about 10% of the electorate, easily double the number of swing voters.
Second, the electoral climate favors Democrats far more than it did in 2016. The generic Congressional ballot favors Democrats by more than twice the margin of 2016, when it hovered around 1-2 points for most of the election cycle. Democrats took control of the House in the midterms and have flipped 7 governorships over the past two years, including in Kentucky, a state Trump won by 30 points in 2016.
In shying away from Warren, Democrats are basically negotiating against themselves. The last thing you want to do in an election characterized by historic turnout is … uh, reduce turnout. Especially not when you're riding a wave of popularity. If anything, the greater risk is missing an opportunity to take the Senate along with the White House.
And focusing on swing voters is an iffy proposition anyway. Only 37% of white voters voted Democrat in 2016. Meanwhile, 88% of Black voters—94% of Black women!—and 65% of Latinx/Hispanic and Asian voters voted Democrat. They need a reason to overcome exhausting Republican voter suppression tactics, to lose a day of work waiting in long lines or volunteering to drive people to distant polling sites.
That's how a 5 or 6 point margin turns into a 7 or 8 point margin. That's how we win the White House and the Senate. That's how we show up for the people who paid the heaviest price for 2016. That's how we make the systematic reforms necessary to secure people's voting rights and restore the integrity of the judiciary. That's how we make sure this never happens again.
So if you want to vote for Warren, but were holding off because it seemed risky, go for it. To quote FDR, the politician Warren most reminds me of, the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Or, to quote a more contemporary leader, Megan Rapinoe:
Let's fucking go.